E011 · SextantCast
A two-instrument navigation plan: Decycler baseline for heading, Chande Forecast Oscillator for timing.
Overview
Most kits pile on crowded oscillators. SextantCast uses only two quiet, underused instruments — one reads the underlying heading, the other flags the turn — plus a volatility floor to skip dead hours.
🌊 Decycler Baseline
A near-zero-lag smoothed trend line that strips out high-frequency noise, showing the true drift.
🎯 Forecast Deviation (CFO)
Measures how far price has pushed from its own short-term linear-regression forecast, oscillating around zero.
⚡ Volatility Floor
ATR ≥ 0.6× its 50-bar average, so windows only open when the market is actually moving.
Signal Rules
Core Logic
- Heading gate — a window opens only on the side the Decycler baseline points to (price above = up-side, below = down-side).
- Trigger — the Forecast Deviation line crossing its zero center marks the turn.
- Alive filter — a volatility floor skips flat, sleepy hours.
- Retreat control — protective exit at 1.5× ATR; target at 1.8× the risk distance (RR ≈ 1.8).
- Sizing — each window risks a fixed 1%; auto-sized lots; max 10 windows/day; one at a time.
Decision Flow
Parameters (defaults)
| Decycler baseline period | 30 |
| Forecast oscillator window (CFO) | 14 |
| ATR period · alive floor | 14 · 0.6×(50) |
| Protective exit | 1.5 × ATR |
| Target | 1.8 × risk (RR≈1.8) |
| Max windows / day | 10 |
| Risk per window | 1% |
| Simulated signals | ≈ 3.3 / day (H1) |
Best fit: timeframe H1 (M30–H4). Suits currency pairs, indices and crude — instruments that drift with readable direction.
⚠️ This is a study & sharing plan, not a promise of any outcome. Markets carry retreat risk. Always back-test 1–2 years of H1 data before participating with real size.